The Swell Show

Edition 2 · Friday, October 16, 2026

The weekend breaks on Friday and fades by Sunday.

Tomorrow, Friday, is the busiest day of the weekend, in rentals and in hotels. Whoever arrives on Sunday finds the area half full: that is the night to go out and win.

Morning, line-up.

Today’s story

Sunday is the soft night

We measured the weekend day by day. Arriving Friday, peak occupancy is 50%; Saturday, 47%; Sunday, 42%. Hotels drop harder: 28% fully booked on Friday, 17% on Saturday and 13% on Sunday.

Someone arriving on Sunday finds 108 more free rentals than someone arriving on Friday. For guests staying a few days, Sunday to Wednesday is the cheap window; for businesses, it is the one to go out and fill.

What to do today

Lodging
Sunday is your softest night: set a Sunday-to-Wednesday rate and open single nights, which still have little competition. If you are between US$201 and 260, check your price or photos: that band is falling behind.
Restaurants
The peak is Friday and Saturday; on Sunday, run a short shift. With the dry season coming early, get ready for more outdoor tables from late October.
Shops and services
Tomorrow is the wave day: lessons, board rentals and surf photos have their best Friday. And before the dry season, check your water: tank, pump and usage.

The numbers

50%peak occupancy for tomorrow. The first time we hit half: an even sea, no surprises.
28%of hotels fully booked for tomorrow. Saturday drops to 17% and Sunday to 13%: hotels fill with Friday arrivals.
US$57median nightly rate of what is still free for tomorrow. US$61 on Saturday and US$68 in a week: last-minute stays are being marked down.
78%occupancy when searching a single night, versus 50% for three. The one-night stay still has little competition.
65%occupancy for places at US$121 to 150. Up to US$40, 25%: the top step of the mid-range is leading.

By price

From US$91 up it fills; between US$201 and 260 there is a gap

Four in ten places booked for tomorrow cost between US$61 and 150 a night, and half of what is booked is above US$150. The US$121 to 150 band is at 65% and US$151 to 200 at 63%, but US$201 to 260 stays at 43%. For restaurants and shops: the careful dinner and the quality product have someone to sell to.

Budgetup to US$60
33%
Mid-rangeUS$61 to 150
51%
UpscaleUS$151 to 350
53%
Luxuryover US$350
60%

Share of places booked for tomorrow at each nightly rate. Every place in the area, classified one by one.

What the tide brings in

  1. In Costa Rica

    An early dry season is on the way

    Costa Rica's National Meteorological Institute forecasts below-normal rain from October 19 to November 15, with very dry conditions on the North and Central Pacific from October 26, driven by an El Niño that could be the strongest on record. Good news for sunshine tourism, but check tanks, wells and water use before high season.

    Source: The Tico Times

See you in the water.

How we measure · Occupancy = 1 − places free for 3 nights ÷ total inventory. It’s a ceiling: some places block dates without being booked. Sources: the main booking platforms, Open-Meteo and the Central Bank of Costa Rica. Measured October 15 at 6:00.