The Swell Show

Special report · October 2026

The season in numbers

This year's big wave lasts two weeks: from December 26 to January 2 the area is already more than 80% booked, over two months out. Before and after, there's plenty of open water.

88%already booked for check-in on Jan 1, 11 weeks out.
57%for the week before Christmas. There's still room: that's the window to sell.
33%in March, even with US and Canadian spring breaks. People book late.

Week by week

How much of the area's 1,492 places is already booked for each Saturday check-in (and key dates), for 3-night stays. Measured October 14.

  1. Oct 2445%
  2. Oct 3141%
  3. Nov 741%
  4. Nov 1445%
  5. Nov 2146%
  6. Nov 2850%
  7. Dec 542%
  8. Dec 1240%
  9. Dec 1954%
  10. Dec 2057%
  11. Dec 2683%
  12. Dec 2786%
  13. Jan 188%
  14. Jan 282%
  15. Jan 960%
  16. Jan 1652%
  17. Jan 2351%
  18. Jan 3048%
  19. Feb 647%
  20. Feb 1346%
  21. Feb 2044%
  22. Feb 2742%
  23. Mar 635%
  24. Mar 1335%
  25. Mar 2040%
  26. Mar 2442%
  27. Mar 2642%
  28. Mar 2740%
  29. Apr 333%

The big waves are dates more than 70% booked.

Who's coming

Air arrivals to Costa Rica in August 2026, vs. the same month in 2025.

United States88,198−13.9%
Europe37,498+2.7%
Canada11,628+19.4%
Mexico10,010+9.8%

The US is still the biggest market, but it's falling. Canada is growing fastest: 232,949 Canadians arrived January–August, 24.1% more than in 2025. Source: Costa Rican Tourism Institute.

The calendar

Holidays and school breaks in the countries that visit most.

  • Nov 26 – Nov 29Thanksgiving long weekendUS
  • Dec 5 – Dec 12HanukkahJewish community
  • Dec 10 – Feb 14Year-end school holidaysCosta Rica
  • Dec 19 – Jan 3Christmas and New Year holidaysUS, Canada and Europe
  • Jan 16 – Jan 18Martin Luther King long weekendUS
  • Feb 13 – Feb 15Presidents' Day and Family DayUS and Canada
  • Mar 6 – Apr 4Spring breakUS
  • Mar 13 – Mar 21March breakCanada
  • Mar 21 – Mar 28Easter weekCosta Rica

What to do

Lodging

Don't discount the holidays: from December 26 to January 2 the area is already above 80%. Raise rates and minimum stay there, and put the effort into filling the week before Christmas and January, which are still open.

Restaurants and cafés

The peak lasts two weeks. Bring in extra staff from December 20 to January 4, with reservations and a short menu, and don't overstaff January and February: the area will be about half full.

Shops and services

Stock up for the year-end wave early: peninsula suppliers run out in those weeks. In March, aim at Canadians: they're the fastest-growing market.

This moves every day

This report is a snapshot. The daily report tells you when a date starts filling up, so the wave doesn’t catch you standing still.

Get the daily report free

How we measure: we count free places from Playa Hermosa to Mal País on the main booking platforms, out of an inventory of 1,492. Occupancy is a ceiling: some owners block dates without a booking. Arrivals are from the Costa Rican Tourism Institute. The Swell Show, October 14, 2026.