The Swell Show

Edition 1 · Thursday, October 15, 2026

An even low season: weekdays outweigh Saturday.

Tomorrow, Thursday, is busier than Saturday, for rentals and hotels alike. If you're waiting for the weekend to fill up, you'll be waiting a while.

Morning, line-up.

Today’s set

48%maximum occupancy for tomorrow. Same as yesterday: the water is glassy.
US$54median nightly rate for tomorrow, US$61 a week out. The closer the date, the cheaper it gets.
26%of hotels fully booked for tomorrow. One in four has no rooms left.
58%occupancy for places above US$350 a night. Still the fullest in the area.
31%for budget places (up to US$60). Seven in ten are still free.

The wave nobody sees

Saturday isn't the peak

For Saturday the 17th, maximum rental occupancy drops to 44% (vs. 48% on Thursday) and fully booked hotels fall by half: 13% vs. 26%. Right now demand comes in weekday stays, not weekends.

One more thing: searching one night for tomorrow shows 373 free places; searching three shows 781. More than half of what's free doesn't take one-night stays.

Where it breaks

The mid-range brings the volume, luxury brings the percentage

Four in ten places booked for tomorrow cost between US$61 and 150 a night. But almost half of what's booked (48%) is above US$150. For restaurants and shops: dinner by reservation and well-made products have demand; mass-market and cheap is what's hard to move.

Budgetup to US$60
31%
Mid-rangeUS$61 to 150
49%
UpscaleUS$151 to 350
51%
Luxuryover US$350
58%

Tomorrow’s occupancy by nightly rate, across every place in the area classified one by one.

What the tide brings in

  1. Around here

    Cóbano won't renew concessions on State Natural Heritage land

    On October 13 the district's intendant, Ronny Montero, said he won't push to renew concessions on land declared State Natural Heritage, nor seek to have it reclassified. If your business sits in the maritime-terrestrial zone, check which category your land falls under.

    Source: Concejo Municipal Distrito Cóbano

  2. In Costa Rica

    More direct flights to Guanacaste in the green season

    Southwest will add flights from Austin (Saturdays and Sundays) and Nashville (Saturdays) to Liberia airport in June and July 2027, on top of its February–April schedule. That's air capacity in the months that are usually slowest.

    Source: Diario Extra

  3. Around the world

    Canadians are skipping the US and coming to Costa Rica

    From January to August, 232,949 Canadians arrived, 24% more than in 2025, while US arrivals grew just 2.7%. Tension between Canada and the US is pushing them here, and Canadian airlines added flights.

    Source: The Tico Times

Play of the week

Lodging
Don't cut Thursday and Friday rates any further; cut Saturday, the slow day. If you have a three-night minimum, try opening single nights: there's little competition in that search.
Restaurants
Staff up Tuesday to Thursday, not Saturday. The mid-to-upper price menu is the one with buyers.
Shops and services
A week to paddle: tight inventory, focus on residents and longer-stay visitors (lessons, weekly gear rental, packages).

See you in the water.

Occupancy = 1 − places free for 3 nights ÷ total inventory. It’s a ceiling: some places block dates without being booked. Sources: the main booking platforms, Open-Meteo and the Central Bank of Costa Rica. Measured October 14 at 6:00.